Arthur
McLean

There's an older song, a one-time favorite of the college radio circuit by a group called R.E.M. titled "It's the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine)."

That's kind of how I feel after reading a long story about peak oil groups and what they're saying is going to happen to the world when the oil runs dry.

So, what's peak oil? It is a theory, or more a formula that tries to predict when the world's supplies of oil will reach their peak of output, and after that, the amount of oil we pump out of the ground will start to decline.

Now, this is not a "sky if falling" declaration. It is not really all that open to interpretation like say, global warming.

The peak oil concept is based on sound science. After all, oil is a finite quantity and it will run out at some point.

It was predicted that U.S. oil reserves in the ground (not counting ANWAR) would reach their peak around 1970. It actually happened in 1971. Since that time, oil production on U.S. soil has been going down, and there's little we can do about it.

Estimating when production worldwide will reach its peak is a lot harder to pin down. Some folks who look at the data say we've already passed the peak. Others say it will take another 20 to 50 years.

Whenever we do pass the peak of oil production and start down the downhill slide, things are going to get interesting.

Of course, the groups really concerned about peak oil in this story, predictably located in California, paint a doomsday picture of this great nation turning into something that's a cross between the Mad Max movies and an agrarian society akin to what existed in the Bronze Age.

And it can be an unsettling thing if you really think about it. Look around you. Nearly everything you're using is made possible because of oil and petroleum based products. Now, imagine what that same area would look like if there were no ships to bring in goods from around the word and no trucks to ship it cross-country.

According to the peak oil folks, we'll all be wearing buckskin and trying to farm little plots of land just to survive.

I don't know. Maybe it will come to that, maybe it won't. People are amazingly creative and resourceful. Technological development is accelerating. I find it hard to believe that we won't be able to overcome the problem of peak oil with science and technology in the future.

I mean, things like lithium-ion batteries that are found in our cell phones were nearly science fiction just a few years ago. GM's first electric car in 1996 was little more than a novelty act. Now, we have hybrids tearing up the roads offering performance and luxury. Lithium-ion batteries power nearly everything with a battery.

The truth is, we don't know what's around the bend, and I'm hesitant to think that we all have to start learning how to weave hemp shirts in the next 10 years.